Country Fire Authority Chief Officer Jason Heffernan predicted Friday would be a “dire bushfire day”.

“We can expect if a fire takes hold, and we see the fire spread the way they’re going, they’re going to be uncontrollable. They’re going to be unstoppable,” he said.

Almost half of Victoria will be under a catastrophic fire danger rating. On Thursday authorities urged anyone living in a catastrophic-forecast area to pack up and leave by no later than 7am on Friday.

“Catastrophic means catastrophic,” acting Premier Ben Carroll said. “Victoria is one of the most bushfire-prone areas in the world. We are talking tomorrow of uncontrollable, unpredictable bushfires with the real risk of loss, loss of life and property.”

Authorities fear the extreme weather may also ground the state’s fleet of firefighting aircraft.

“The last time that we saw catastrophic fire danger ratings in Victoria across multiple districts was on the 21st of November 2019, and we know the devastating impacts that we saw in the east of our state during those 2019-20 fires,” Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said on Thursday.

“So we are talking about a very significant day for Victoria tomorrow.”

There is a statewide total fire ban in place for Friday. In regions with catastrophic danger ratings, 450 childcare centres and school holiday programs will be closed.

V/Line announced all train services on nine of its regional lines would be cancelled on Friday due to the severe weather, with no replacement bus services. Electricity distributors warned of potential blackouts as they monitored the network for sparking or spot-fires. Campers at tourist hotspots including the Goulburn River, Grampians and Great Ocean Road were told to head for home, and paramedics were being pulled from some regional stations out of concern for their safety.

Longwood fire

The bushfire burning in Longwood destroyed two structures in deep bushland, with at least one a house. That fire had burnt more than 2700 hectares as more than 400 firefighters worked to bring it under control on Thursday.

“It’s very difficult terrain to get to. They have been observed by our aircraft and until we get in there, we won’t be able to confirm exactly what those structures are,” Wiebusch said.

The blaze was fanned by strong winds on Wednesday night, sending embers into nearby Dropmore.

Residents of towns including Euroa, Merton and Bonnie Doon were warned at 4pm on Thursday that they needed to leave immediately as the fire moved east towards the Strathbogie State Forest.

Mount Lawson Fire

A second fire near the Victoria/NSW border was still burning out of control on Thursday evening. Nearby residents were advised at midday to leave immediately. The fire ground was 27 kilometres west of Walwa, travelling from the Mount Lawson State Park in a southerly direction towards Bungil.

A State Control Centre spokeswoman said the fire had spread from the nearby Dropmore and Ruffy areas, where residents had also been urged to evacuate.

“We saw some intense fire behaviour overnight and into this morning …” the spokeswoman said. “We’re just urging people to stay up to date with warnings. Fire is dynamic; don’t become complacent. Be prepared to enact bushfire plans.”

Temperatures in Melbourne eased on Thursday, with the city hitting a high of 31 degrees. The city is predicted to hit 42 degrees by 2pm on Friday before afternoon thunderstorms roll in.

But regional Victoria is still experiencing the worst of a three-day heatwave. Longwood was predicted to reach a high of up to 43 degrees with no overnight respite; the same conditions were forecast for Albury-Wodonga near the Mount Lawson blaze.

Forty ground crews, along with aircraft, were responding to the fire.

An extreme heatwave warning was issued by the Bureau of Meteorology from Wednesday to Saturday this week for the Northern Country, North East, East Gippsland and West and South Gippsland, with a severe heatwave warning for Mallee, Wimmera, Central, North Central and South West.

The extreme conditions led to several events across the state being cancelled on Thursday, including a Mountain to Surf run.

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While individual bushfires cannot be directly attributed to the climate crisis, there is strong evidence that it is making severe fire weather days like Friday more likely, said Associate Professor Andrew King, chief investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century.

“We know fires spread more easily when we have very dry conditions, with low humidity, strong winds and dry vegetation. As the world warms we are seeing more frequent and intense heat events where the air is very dry and this is where a climate change signal is clearest.”

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