OPINION
2024 is the year of elections because
in 64 countries, 49% of the world’s population is voting.
The world is moving to the right. Strong men (usually) and women (Le Pen, Meloni) who are nationalist, protectionist, authoritarian – are on the rise.
In this context, the smashing victory by Sir Keir Starmer’s British Labour Party appears like a light in gathering darkness. There is now a lot riding on what Labour does with its victory.
Winning the British election was a foregone conclusion. After 14 years of incompetence, lies, venality and corruption, even the Conservatives were falling over each other to predict defeat.
It has to be said, however, that – and this is amazing – there was always a glimmer of hope for the Conservatives. When it comes to winning elections, they are the most successful party in the democratic world. Labour, on the other hand, often gives the impression that they prefer to be in opposition.
Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, made it his mission to make Labour electable. In practice, this meant pulling Labour to the centre and representing no threat to the all-powerful finance sector.
The election result shows he was successful, although not as successful as he might have liked. Voter turnout was significantly down. There was enthusiasm for Labour, but there was more for an end to Conservative rule.
Of those who did vote, a sizeable number defected to the new Reform party led by Nigel Farage. Farage is the British version of Donald Trump. Having now gained a foothold in the British Parliament, we can expect to hear a lot of extreme stuff from Reform MPs as they rail against Europe, wokeism, immigrants, elites, the deep state and the media.
As the Conservative Party does its soul searching, they will be looking over their shoulder at the threat Reform represents. Many of the possible leaders of the Conservative Party are sympathetic to the Reform agenda.
Expect to see the Conservatives repositioning in ways that kill off Reform.
The scale of the victory and the inevitable internal struggle that will now take place within the Conservative Party gives Labour a window of opportunity they must not squander.
Labour needs to show it has workable answers to the big questions facing Britain. In particular, they must heal the economic, social and cultural divisions that are the legacy of unregulated globalisation, deregulation, austerity, privatisation and liberalisation.
This challenge is not unique to Britain. As the Economist magazine has pointed out, it was the failure to bring societies together that opened the door to the wave of right-wing governments we are now seeing around the world. Recall that in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was centre-left, progressive, social democratic, Third Way governments that were in power.
As these governments lost elections or faltered, voters began to listen to the simplistic solutions offered by right-wing parties.
British Labour has the opportunity to demonstrate that there is an alternative.
If there is a concern here, it is that, in an effort to be electable, the British Labour Party will not have done the work needed to come up with the kind of revolutionary policies that our times call for and that a progressive party should deliver. It may be that Labour will turn out to be a kinder, more competent version of the government they replaced.
If this is the case, challenges will not be met, and the political wheel will turn again.
The revolution that is required is not a violent one. It is the creative revolution the English philosopher John Locke called for – a revolution that would see new institutions replace those that no longer work.
Voters know this scale of change is needed. The right capitalised on this belief but what they offer is little more than nostalgia – Make America (insert another country) Great Again. Yet, for the many people who have become increasingly desperate and disenchanted with the way things are, the offer of any kind of hope is compelling.
It is a long time since progressive parties have inspired hope. British Labour will have the eyes of progressive parties on it (as they were on New Zealand Labour in 2017). What these parties will want to know is whether British Labour can show how to build a more democratic, just, economically prosperous, culturally rich, technologically enabled, ecologically sustainable future.
After the disastrous defeat of 2023, the New Zealand Labour Party will be paying close attention. They will have already learned that elections can be won if the governing party has run its course and by a determined effort to make their party unthreatening and electable. In the coming years, hopefully, they will be watching as the British Labour Government shows how a creative policy revolution can make victory worthwhile.
