Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He’s won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.

OPINION

Between the early elimination of the
href=”https://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/crusaders-rugby-team/”>Crusaders and key players having been afforded Japanese sabbaticals, All Blacks coach Scott Robertson has been handed two distinct issues in his quest to select a squad to play England and Fiji next month.

The first is that a significant group of key players that includes his two most likely options to be captain – Scott Barrett and Ardie Savea – will be coming into the series against England having not played for the better part of eight weeks.

Other members of last year’s World Cup squad who are going to be short of rugby include Tamaiti Williams, Codie Taylor, Fletcher Newell, Ethan Blackadder and David Havili, while Beauden Barrett, like Savea, played his last game in Japan in early May.

Typically, the concern for All Blacks coaches preparing for the July series is players needing a break after an intense and gruelling playoffs series.

But 2024 is presenting a new problem, as for the second time in Super Rugby Pacific history, a New Zealand team hasn’t made the last eight. A perfect storm of sorts has been created by the compounding factors of Barrett and Savea also being out of action for months and the likely desire within the All Blacks coaching group to ensure they have players with sufficient experienced and leadership qualities in the starting team for the first test on July 6.

Gone from last year’s squad are Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith and Richie Mo’unga – a quartet with 430 caps between them – while former captain Sam Cane will also be unavailable in July due to injury, meaning Robertson will be eager for both Barrett brothers, Savea and Taylor to be in the match-day 23 for the first test.

There will be a risk in loading the team with so many players short of rugby, but perhaps a greater one by not selecting enough experienced campaigners with the confidence to lead.

If the first issue presented by the demise of the Crusaders is tangible, the second is more about perception, but could be more damaging in Robertson’s quest to keep the whole of the country behind him.

As someone who played for the Crusaders, then coached them to seven successive titles between 2017 and 2023, there is already a strong social media narrative in play that Robertson will naturally favour picking players from his former club.

It is one of New Zealand’s least likeable attributes that it can view a national team through a parochial lens, but as madly reductive or plainly wrong as it is to see regional favouritism and develop conspiracy theories to explain selections, it does happen, and it has left some previous All Blacks coaches estranged from specific parts of the fan base.

Specifically for Robertson, there are a few Crusaders players with genuine All Blacks aspirations, who needed to be involved in the playoffs to cement their selection claims and remove the possibility of being seen as allegiance picks.

Blackadder has shown that when he’s fit, he’s a good international player – tough, engaged, able to carry well, tackles hard, has an impeccable work rate and is able to play across all three loose forward positions.

But he has barely played in the last two years due to constant injuries and he needed a few more crunch knockout games to strengthen his case, as the likes of Hoskins Sotutu, Peter Lakai, Brayden Iose, Luke Jacobson and Akira Ioane have all enjoyed strong campaigns and all have the opportunity to keep showcasing themselves in the playoffs.

Havili is another who has been up and down this year, and while he is genuinely versatile and meets the definition of utility back, it would be a tough sell, on what he has produced this year, to include him in an All Blacks squad ahead of either the Hurricanes’ Billy Proctor or Ruben Love – who have respectively been the form centre and fullback in Super Rugby.

Blackadder and Havili are good players with test experience, but it will be a marginal call to say they have banked enough credit through their previous All Blacks performances and work with the Crusaders this year to be picked ahead of a cohort of in-form, younger Hurricanes and Blues players.

Crusaders lock Quinten Strange is another who would have relished the chance to have at least one playoff game to strengthen his case.

Lock is a position where the country is short of experience and proven quality, but Strange has been impressive in an underperforming Crusaders team and looks to have the ruggedness and appetite for collisions that mark him as ready to step up to play for the All Blacks.

But while he’s not playing, the likes of Patrick Tuipulotu, Tupou Vaa’i, Sam Darry, Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Manaaki Selby-Rickit will all have the opportunity to enhance their already strong claims to be picked.

Strange has earned selection should it come, but there will inevitably be pockets of the country who will dispute that.