“Mainland China now represents 39 per cent of total export value, but 15 per cent of volume, which is a trend that undercuts the Chinese allegations that Australia was dumping cheap wine,” writes wine columnist RICHARD CALVER. 

Keeping an eye on what’s going on in the wine industry led me, on my recent return from an overseas holiday, to read about the increase in Australia’s wine exports.

This increase was related to an upsurge in exports to China. In the 12 months to March, total Australian wine exports to all destinations increased by 41 per cent in value to $2.64 billion, according to Wine Australia, a Commonwealth Government statutory authority established under the Wine Australia Act 2013. The average value of exports increased by 33 per cent to $4.09 per litre free on board, the highest average value in almost two decades.

The increase in average value is mainly due to the level of premium wine shipments to mainland China, after tariffs on Australian bottled wine were removed at the end of March 2024.

To recap, between 2020 and March 2024, Australia was confronted with a backlash from China following diplomatic tensions involving human rights issues and Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. China aimed its wrath at a number of Australian exports, including wine, which collapsed after exceeding $1 billion annually. 

China is now top of the pops again: the 12 months ended March 2025 represent a full year’s worth of exports to mainland China since tariffs were eliminated. So, 96 million litres of wine were exported to that market, valued at $1.03 billion.

Mainland China now represents 39 per cent of total export value, but 15 per cent of volume, which is a trend that undercuts the Chinese allegations that Australia was dumping cheap wine. 

But the news is not all good. While China has resurged, exports to the rest of the world declined by 13 per cent in value to $1.62 billion and 9 per cent in volume to 551 million litres.

This was the lowest value to the rest of the world in 10 years and the lowest volume in over 20 years. Wine Australia reports that the volume drop was due to declines in exports to key destinations such as the UK, US and Canada.

Of particular concern, given the Trump tariff circus currently in play, is the fall in exports to North America, which declined by 18 per cent in volume to 166 million litres, valued at $476 million.

While shipments to the US and Canada both declined in volume, Canada went up in value due to an increase in premium packaged shipments; so, as with all that is going on in the Americas, the glimmer of hope is in Canada.

In my understanding, Trump has imposed a baseline tariff on all imports into the US of 10 per cent, which is a minimum threshold amount despite a general rule that the US will impose a tariff at half the rate of the tariff imposed on US goods coming into Australia.

There has been some vacillation on the part of Trump in relation to the level and application of tariffs. Setting aside the asinine issue of applying tariffs in the first place, this on-again, off-again situation is plain stupid: economists are clear that uncertainty deters investment and negatively affects employment growth. 

So, the extent to which Australian wine exports are affected by another tariff rodeo is as uncertain as Trump’s decision making. But it does seem that wine export growth is now centred on China. 

Why is Trump unable to be hanged for treason? Fake noose.