U.S. Policy Shifts open door for China’s growing influence in the Pacific

U.S. Policy Shifts open door for China’s growing influence in the Pacific

BY BEN BILUA
Gizo

RECENT changes in United States policy towards the Pacific Islands is creating a ripple of implications across the region, threatening the once “Good-Old-Friend” relationship between Pacific Island countries and Washington.

This concern was underscored during the 54th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, where the Communique highlighted the need for a unified regional response to evolving U.S. policies.

Section 18 of the Communique noted the endorsement of the Report on the Implications of U.S. Policy Shifts on the Pacific Islands and CROP Agencies by Forum Troika Leaders.

The report recommends a coordinated, region-wide advocacy agenda with the U.S., including the potential appointment of a Special Envoy to strengthen engagement.

Put simply, Pacific leaders are seeking to speak with one voice on critical issues with the aim to safeguard regional interests amidst uncertain U.S. policy directions.

While Washington appears to be stepping back, China has seized the moment to consolidate its influence across the Pacific, particularly in Solomon Islands.

Remarks by the Solomon Islands Minister for Police, National Security, and Correctional Services, Hon. Jimson Fiau Tanangada, at the 2025 Conference of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in Lianyungang, China, signals a clear pivot.

He emphasized that security cooperation with China “primarily aims to enhance the domestic security of the Solomon Islands, while also contributing to regional and global security,” even describing China as the “leader in global public security.”

This positioning suggests that the Solomon Islands is not only engaging with China tactically but is establishing Beijing as its preferred security partner, a move with significant implications for the country’s sovereignty and regional power dynamics.

Where it begins

Solomon Islands’ diplomatic shift from Taiwan to China in 2019 reflects a pragmatic decision shaped by economic, political, and strategic calculations. Beijing’s offers of large-scale financial assistance, infrastructure investment, and access to its vast market outweighed the limited support available from Taiwan. Leaders also viewed alignment with China as a means to secure domestic development resources and consolidate political support, illustrating the interplay of domestic priorities and international strategy.

Since 2019, China has invested heavily in Solomon Islands’ development. Projects such as the Pacific Games Stadium in Honiara, road and bridge upgrades across Guadalcanal, and the construction of a modern hospital have reshaped the nation’s infrastructure and public services. These initiatives have not only improved connectivity and healthcare but have also demonstrated China’s commitment to a long-term partnership extending beyond mere infrastructure. Medical teams, equipment, and local training programs further underscore China’s holistic approach to development assistance.

Geopolitics in the region

The Pacific region, long considered within the traditional spheres of influence of the U.S. and Australia, is now increasingly a theatre of geopolitical competition. While Washington and Canberra seek to reinforce their presence through aid, diplomatic missions, and security guarantees, China has emerged as a compelling alternative development partner. Through infrastructure, concessional loans, and diplomatic engagement, Beijing appeals to island nations grappling with climate change, infrastructure deficits, and economic challenges.

This rivalry presents both opportunities and challenges for Pacific Island countries. On one hand, gaining leverage to secure essential resources and attention from major powers. On the other, the region risks becoming a pawn in a larger strategic contest, where external agendas may overshadow local priorities. Pacific leaders have consistently emphasized that climate change, sustainable development, and sovereignty remain their top concerns. How effectively the U.S., Australia, or China can align with these priorities will shape the future of geopolitics in the Pacific.

In the shifting sands of Pacific diplomacy, one thing is clear: the islands are no longer peripheral players, they are central actors navigating a complex web of power, influence, and development ambitions.

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